US Crude Balance — July 2026
Generated 2026-10-19 02:23 UTC. All flows MBBL/D. Bottom-up balance vs EIA published data.
Source freshness
| source | latest_period | lag_months | last_pulled | expected_cadence | expected_next | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AER | 2026-08-01 | 2 | 2026-10-15 19:37 | monthly | 2026-09-01 | OK |
| CER | 2026-09-15 | 1 | 2026-10-15 19:33 | monthly | 2026-10-15 | OK |
| CER_TOLLS | 2026-05-01 | 5 | 2026-10-15 19:36 | monthly | 2026-06-01 | LATE |
| CNLOPB | 2026-08-01 | 2 | 2026-10-15 20:00 | monthly | 2026-09-01 | OK |
| EIA | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 19:21 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
| EIA_WEEKLY | 2026-10-09 | 0 | 2026-10-15 19:32 | weekly | 2026-10-16 | OK |
| FERC | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 20:00 | annual | 2027-07-01 | OK |
| NDIC | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 19:37 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
| NM_OCD | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 19:45 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
| PORTOFCC | 2026-09-01 | 1 | 2026-10-15 19:37 | monthly | 2026-10-01 | OK |
| RRC | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-07 22:42 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
| RRC_COMPLETIONS | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-07-30 20:20 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | LATE |
| RRC_DRILLING_PERMITS | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-07-30 20:15 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | LATE |
| RRC_PDQ | 2026-08-01 | 2 | 2026-07-30 18:32 | monthly | 2026-09-01 | OK |
| RRC_PENDING_LEASE | 2026-05-01 | 5 | 2026-07-17 18:00 | monthly | 2026-06-01 | LATE |
| RRC_R1 | 2026-06-01 | 4 | 2026-09-08 10:30 | monthly | 2026-07-01 | OK |
| RRC_T1 | 2026-06-01 | 4 | 2026-10-19 02:11 | monthly | 2026-07-01 | OK |
| SASK_ENERGY | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 20:05 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
| STATCAN | 2026-07-01 | 3 | 2026-10-15 19:36 | monthly | 2026-08-01 | OK |
Headlines
- US residual: -196 MBBL/D.
- Stock Draw down 1,391 MBBL/D m/m.
- Exports down 1,179 MBBL/D m/m.
- Imports up 180 MBBL/D m/m.
Balance by region
| Region | production | imports | net_receipts | stock_draw | refinery_inputs | exports | exports_basis | residual | spr_stock_draw | residual_incl_spr | transfers_to_supply | residual_incl_transfers | national_terms | residual_incl_national_terms |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 13,948 | 6,224 | 0 | 418 | 17,230 | 3,556 | REPORTED | -196 | 561 | 365 | 666 | 470 | nan | nan |
| P1 | 52 | 423 | 302 | 51 | 787 | 14 | REPORTED | 27 | nan | nan | nan | 27 | nan | nan |
| P2 | 1,816 | 2,837 | -74 | -72 | 4,298 | 75 | REPORTED | 134 | nan | nan | nan | 134 | nan | nan |
| P3 | 10,339 | 1,381 | 353 | 610 | 9,538 | 3,467 | REPORTED | -322 | nan | nan | nan | -322 | 197 | -125 |
| P4 | 1,027 | 418 | -741 | -7 | 657 | 0 | P4_ASSUMED_ZERO | 40 | nan | nan | nan | 40 | nan | nan |
| P5 | 713 | 1,165 | 160 | -164 | 1,951 | nan | NOT_PUBLISHED | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan | nan |
Residual reconciliation vs EIA adjustment (last 12 months)
| period | model_residual | spr_stock_draw | residual_incl_spr | transfers_to_supply | residual_incl_transfers | eia_adjustment | gap | gap_incl_spr | gap_incl_transfers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08 | -793 | -63 | -856 | 496 | -297 | 297 | -496 | -559 | -0 |
| 2025-09 | -255 | -68 | -323 | 672 | 417 | -416 | -671 | -739 | 1 |
| 2025-10 | -545 | -84 | -629 | 723 | 178 | -178 | -723 | -807 | 0 |
| 2025-11 | -801 | -78 | -879 | 481 | -320 | 320 | -481 | -559 | -0 |
| 2025-12 | -553 | -50 | -603 | 591 | 38 | -36 | -589 | -639 | 2 |
| 2026-01 | -377 | -56 | -434 | 723 | 346 | -348 | -725 | -782 | -2 |
| 2026-02 | -1,120 | -8 | -1,129 | 628 | -492 | 494 | -627 | -635 | 1 |
| 2026-03 | -754 | 20 | -735 | 527 | -227 | 228 | -526 | -506 | 1 |
| 2026-04 | -715 | 677 | -38 | 379 | -336 | 336 | -379 | 298 | 0 |
| 2026-05 | -683 | 1,263 | 580 | 1,037 | 354 | -354 | -1,037 | 226 | 0 |
| 2026-06 | -238 | 1,106 | 869 | 570 | 332 | -332 | -569 | 537 | 1 |
| 2026-07 | -196 | 561 | 365 | 666 | 470 | -469 | -665 | -105 | 1 |
Regional residuals
Stocks
Data vintage: AER: 2026-10-15 19:37 UTC; CER: 2026-10-15 19:33 UTC; CNLOPB: 2026-10-15 20:00 UTC; EIA: 2026-10-15 19:21 UTC; EIA_WEEKLY: 2026-10-15 19:32 UTC; FERC: 2026-10-15 20:00 UTC; NDIC: 2026-10-15 19:37 UTC; NM_OCD: 2026-10-15 19:45 UTC; PORTOFCC: 2026-10-15 19:37 UTC; RRC: 2026-10-07 22:42 UTC; RRC_COMPLETIONS: 2026-07-30 20:20 UTC; RRC_DRILLING_PERMITS: 2026-07-30 20:15 UTC; RRC_PDQ: 2026-07-30 18:32 UTC; RRC_PENDING_LEASE: 2026-07-17 18:00 UTC; RRC_T1: 2026-10-19 02:11 UTC; SASK_ENERGY: 2026-10-15 20:05 UTC; STATCAN: 2026-10-15 19:36 UTC